John Silvia
John Silvia
average created demand domestic experience fewer historical increased jobs models policy predicted satisfied supply
Increased domestic demand is now being satisfied by supply from abroad. Fewer domestic jobs have been created than the average historical experience and predicted by the models used by policy makers.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
fed follow jobs reactive
They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,
convince difficult high jobs people perceive
If people perceive that all-time high as 'normal,' that's going to make it very difficult to convince them that jobs are plentiful.
afford job leave offer threaten workers
Firms can't afford to offer much, and workers don't want to threaten to leave because of the job situation.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
jobs lose time
I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing. You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.
jobs lose time
I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing, ... You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.
economy fit jobs labor market mold
Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.
bond continue discount fed gains growth higher inflation interest modest raises rates remain rise short traders trend
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
capital confidence flowing foreign higher impact interest negative rates stops
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
couple discussion estimates heard number
I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
allow confidence data employment federal funds increase measure provides reserve taken
Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,