John Silvia
John Silvia
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
change difficult fed goal market point pursuing raising sell
I think the market may sell off if there's no change in statement, ... It'll still be in the same difficult position, and it'll be disappointed that at this point the Fed is still pursuing goal of raising rates.
change fed language optimism policy saying signal suspect
I suspect that there's a little optimism that the Fed will signal that they are just about done, that they'll change their language from saying 'further policy firming may be' to saying it 'might be' needed.
change interest lifting market money negative rates rise seen sharp signal
The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
cash people
There's got to be a lot of people out there with the cash for a deposit.