Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
cuts extent further interest lesser presumably prices rebound reflection rise stock though
The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,
claims department displaced helping labor officials people storm temporary though
Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations.
activity again demand expect fourth highs home immediate mortgage permits reason response rose straight strength strong though
The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.
evidence guaranteed recession though
It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,
beginning four improvement labor markets numbers past though three
With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
claims downward effects full katrina likely next rise rita though trend week
Katrina and Rita effects still linger, though they are fading, ... Claims will likely rise next week as the full effects of Wilma hit, but the downward trend is very clear.
close deal fed hiking hook hoping housing january march sufficient though
The Fed will deal with (the housing-jobs mix) by hiking in January and March and hoping that the housing softening will be sufficient to get them off the hook by May, though I think that's a close call.
activity begun close couple current early expect levels next remain starts though year
By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,
clearly hike november rates remain remarks rise signal though view
The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.
bit close details domestic final quarter second solid stronger though
The details are close to our expectations, though consumers' spending, up 5.5%, was a bit stronger than we expected. Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker.
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.