Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
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This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,
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It is disappointing in the wake of the huge rise in the Empire State survey -- the indexes are usually at similar levels,
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Bear in mind this survey is always more volatile than the ISM, and there may be an outsized July 4 long weekend effect, too. But these are bad numbers.
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The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.
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A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,
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The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50,
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Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.
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The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,
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The Fed's Beige Book acknowledges some of the improvement evident in recent economic data, but the tone of the survey could not yet be described as a ringing endorsement of the recovery story,
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The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.