Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
absent december degree depend february meetings moves pace policy potential reference specific suggesting
There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes,
accept activity aftermath fell housing immediate optimistic relatively remain
We remain relatively optimistic about the housing market, but we do accept that activity fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11,
business consumer market objective remain sentiment simply stock support until view
We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
currently displaced expect million payroll september time work
There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.
beginning four improvement labor markets numbers past though three
With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
albeit bound breach consumers current economy few level matter next numbers percent spending suggest view
With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly.
certainly economy report serious slowing suggest
There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.
cut further maybe rates reads ready scared willing
This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon.
call pauses sales seen soon
We've seen pauses in sales before; (it's) too soon to call this a trend.
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
bad clearly pressure
Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.
gain november orders revision robust
Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.
bit decline expect further hoped month next reason survey
Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.