Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
industrial production recovery
Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.
consistent gathering industrial looks recovery report stronger
This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,
corporate domestic gross implies percent product recovery strong survey
A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,
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There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.
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There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.
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Our guess now is that there will be some incremental decay of consumers' expectations, especially in the New York area, but it will not be sufficient to upset our basic recovery story,
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There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,
book economic evident improvement recent recovery ringing survey tone
The Fed's Beige Book acknowledges some of the improvement evident in recent economic data, but the tone of the survey could not yet be described as a ringing endorsement of the recovery story,
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
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These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,