Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bottom content data durable information line orders report single small true volatility
The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.
asia crisis higher industrial orders recovers report signs
The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis, ... There are no real signs of a slowdown.
gain november orders revision robust
Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.
accelerate companies numbers orders output pace running suggested
Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.
excess falling hopeful inventory light orders output stronger
Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.
aircraft apart data downward fell headline hit nearly official orders reported revision seems soft
The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.
aircraft building consumer delivery due higher january lower mostly orders pulled reported revision
The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.
durable effect good report single
In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.
clearly hugely pointing vigorous
Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
across earnest expect gets gulf numbers rebuilding stronger year
Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.
bit chairman clearly dependent expects extent fed housing labor performance raise rates relative
The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
greater higher rates
the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.
book changed ease economy fed future likely tells
The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.
close deal fed hiking hook hoping housing january march sufficient though
The Fed will deal with (the housing-jobs mix) by hiking in January and March and hoping that the housing softening will be sufficient to get them off the hook by May, though I think that's a close call.