Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
change clearly debate despite fed further hikes likely looking market minutes number outlook policy reason strong
The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
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This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
likely looking sharp
It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction.
faces fed forward growth happen looking question wake
The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
chance comfort consumer doubt looking mark markets next numbers slowing start temporary
Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
current demand home house level looking purchase recently sales sufficient sustain
Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates.
bar clearly downside further looking risks
Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,
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In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.
clearly hugely pointing vigorous
Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
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Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.
bit chairman clearly dependent expects extent fed housing labor performance raise rates relative
The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
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the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.
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The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.
close deal fed hiking hook hoping housing january march sufficient though
The Fed will deal with (the housing-jobs mix) by hiking in January and March and hoping that the housing softening will be sufficient to get them off the hook by May, though I think that's a close call.