Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
faces fed forward growth happen looking question wake
The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
likely looking sharp
It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction.
fed looking reason
This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
chance comfort consumer doubt looking mark markets next numbers slowing start temporary
Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
current demand home house level looking purchase recently sales sufficient sustain
Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates.
bar clearly downside further looking risks
Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,
change clearly debate despite fed further hikes likely looking market minutes number outlook policy reason strong
The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
data fail inaction leaves november room statement
The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.