Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
fed gradually hike markets preparing process rate recent stance
Preparing the markets for a rate hike is a process in which the Fed gradually has to back away from its unduly pessimistic stance of recent months. This will take some time, but the process is now underway.
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.
act basis bigger boldly expects far fed forced hike might move question raise rates rather time today
As far as we can tell, just about everyone now expects another 25-basis-point hike on May 16, which rather begs the question why the Fed did not act more boldly today and raise rates by 50 basis points. By the time of the May meeting, a bigger move might be forced upon the FOMC.
change clearly debate despite fed further hikes likely looking market minutes number outlook policy reason strong
The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
february hike march rate risk
If February is broadly similar, a March 28 rate hike is assured. The May meeting's risk is rising.
clearly hike november rates remain remarks rise signal though view
The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
data fail inaction leaves november room statement
The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.