Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
almost cash caused certainly core energy flow hit hugely leap rebound result sales strongly
Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter.
core exports percent prevent widening year
Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit.
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If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.
blame core gas sales softness soon tempting
It is tempting to blame the softness of core sales on the surge in gas prices, but we think it is too soon for that.
core few finished next prices slow strongly
This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
core deficit flat november past seems trend
November will be better, but the past year's flat trend in the core deficit seems to be breaking.
core four months report straight
After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.
april assertion core economy gas impossible last measure performance pitiful rose since square week worst
Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction,
bigger cares core declines fed fuel further gas headline labor market natural oil prices pulled slightly slow slowing wake year
The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
coming core details economy extent faces goods inflation overall
The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.