Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
close deal fed hiking hook hoping housing january march sufficient though
The Fed will deal with (the housing-jobs mix) by hiking in January and March and hoping that the housing softening will be sufficient to get them off the hook by May, though I think that's a close call.
activity begun close couple current early expect levels next remain starts though year
By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,
bit close details domestic final quarter second solid stronger though
The details are close to our expectations, though consumers' spending, up 5.5%, was a bit stronger than we expected. Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker.
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
data fail inaction leaves november room statement
The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.
likely worse
Things will likely get worse before they get better.
confirm labor market moment numbers source
These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.
deficit hit likely numbers oil petroleum prices rise rose
The rise in oil prices was always likely to hit these numbers with a vengeance, and the petroleum deficit duly rose by $1.4 billion.
cuts extent further interest lesser presumably prices rebound reflection rise stock though
The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,