Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
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What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
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The third quarter was the sweet spot for profits from an economic perspective. You had this pickup in growth, but you didn't have the pickup in costs. In terms of growth, this is the best quarter we're going to see.
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The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.
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It's the toughest weight class in the state, by far. Everyone here is so tough. There are just some studs in this weight class, so it's going to be the best man who comes through with the title.
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When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.
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We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.
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This was the big match to get. You just want to get to (today), no matter what it takes.
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With inflation trending up, we believe the Fed will want to stay on the tight side of neutral for an extended period.
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We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
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We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.
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Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
challenger device healthy number telling useful
Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs, ... The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.
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While the Fed is more than one person, Mr. Greenspan's retirement means less confidence in the Fed, with somewhat greater risk of both financial market instability and inflation.
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You are seeing a nice rebound from the hurricane-distorted fourth quarter, with strength broadly based across the economy.