Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
almost anywhere growth looking shocking
It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
series
It's another in the long series of the no-news-is-good-news story about inflation.
clearly ease fed free good inclined means
It's clearly good news. Clearly it means that the Fed is still free to ease as much as they are inclined to.
buying money mostly people reflects
It reflects that people mostly still have their jobs, still have their money and people are still buying houses.
fact future looks people prices
The fact that prices have come down makes people feel better and they think the future looks better.
job solid
We have solid job growth, but no significant inflationary pressures.
actions bona chances confidence cut demand directly downward edge growth impact increased indirectly job lay losses negative newly odds perhaps quarter recession spending spiral tend
With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
domestic growth increased negative odds quarter
With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP (gross domestic product) growth have increased substantially.
catching driving economy force forward growth happens hard job labor matter months moving quite rate several stop
We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
dramatic explaining factors growth job looking piece prevent rather special
We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news.
adding businesses growing job market point profits
I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people.
job market
I think the job market is on a roll.
aggressive almost certainly credible deal delayed demand effects enjoy farther faster fed monetary problem rates rise seems start year
When demand does start to rebound, the Fed will have to deal with the delayed effects of a year of aggressive monetary stimulus. Short-term rates will almost certainly have to rise faster and farther than seems credible today. Of course, this is a problem that we now feel we would enjoy facing.
dangerous encourage growth job people room sitting wage worry
A lot of people must still be sitting on the sidelines. This kind of job growth will encourage them, but I don't see it sparking a surge in wage costs. We still have a lot more room for job growth before we have to worry about venturing into dangerous inflationary territory.