Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
appeal bad certain inflation nice number round stop
There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.
coming jobs large looking number people seeing worth
You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
absorb increase jobs labor month natural numbers order positive rate rather smaller takes
It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.
bottom consensus expecting fact less line number
The bottom line is, any number over 50 is encouraging. The fact that it's a little less than the consensus was expecting I don't think is that big of a deal.
fact falling given headline news number recovery signals volatility
Given the volatility of the report, I don't put a lot of credence in the forecasts. The headline number is the news and the fact that it went up signals that the recovery isn't falling apart.
buying christmas close coming consumer gauge industry number onto patterns perhaps represents retail sales season sentiment shopping since year
The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.
cutting fed number rates relax
This is kind of number that will let the Fed relax and keep cutting rates as long as they see a need.
absolutely bond bounce gaining ground headline lost market number trend underlying
The headline number is absolutely kind of a shock, I think the bond market is probably overreacting. It's a bounce back from September, but we're still not gaining back all the ground lost in September. The underlying trend is still kind of down.
crashed cut emergency evidence happened market panic rate treat yesterday
It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.
road worst
The worst is over. We're on the road to recovery.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
bit lighter perhaps
Perhaps Santa's sleigh was a bit lighter than we thought.
elf full operating workshop
Santa's workshop will be operating pretty much at full capacity. There just probably won't be much elf overtime.
clear evidence next recovery though time
Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.