Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
confidence consumer feels holding low mainly maybe positive
Granted, it feels bad, but that's mainly because we had it so good. In reality, we still have positive growth, low unemployment (even if it rising), and low inflation. Maybe that's why consumer confidence is holding up.
absence current economy inflation moving problem whatever
For now, however, inflation is a problem that we would welcome. Over the short-term, in the absence of any current inflation threats, it makes sense to do whatever we can to get the economy moving again.
boost cuts defense growth net next percent produce rise risks spending stimulus tax
If even 5 to 6 percent GDP growth isn't enough to get any net hiring, then the risks rise that the stimulus from the tax cuts and defense spending could produce a one-time boost that will fizzle out next year.
chance definitely hike jobs june looks percent rate report strong
I'd say there's only a 25 percent chance of a rate hike in June even. Even with another strong jobs report Friday, they'll want to have something that looks more definitely like a trend.
believe concern discount economy fed hard imagine inflation legitimate pumping starts
I don't think we can discount the legitimate concern that the Fed has been pumping too much liquidity into the economy. It may be that they have to backpedal furiously as the economy starts to recover. Inflation has been down for so long, it may be hard to imagine it ever getting back up -- but you better believe it still can.
crazy faster fed pressure raise rates
I don't think the Fed is under pressure to raise rates faster than they have been but I think they'd be crazy to think that they should be done tightening.
carry chairman fed latitude wants
The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to.
along clearly decent economy fed moving needs neither nor patch roaring soft
The economy is neither roaring nor stalling; it's clearly out of the soft patch and moving along at a decent pace, and that's all the Fed needs right now.
absolutely bond bounce gaining ground headline lost market number trend underlying
The headline number is absolutely kind of a shock, I think the bond market is probably overreacting. It's a bounce back from September, but we're still not gaining back all the ground lost in September. The underlying trend is still kind of down.
allowing beneficial fed fine greenspan inaction late quickly reduction stood suffering
The Greenspan Fed has inaction down to a fine art. They stood by through much of the late 1990s, allowing a very beneficial reduction in unemployment without suffering any inflationary consequences. When they do have to move, they do so quickly and surgically.
almost early economy evidence fed finally hints inflation moving next pressures threat until
The inflation threat has receded yet again. I can't see the Fed moving now at least until early next year. They have almost no evidence of inflationary pressures and there are hints that the economy finally is slowing.
businesses growth hiring improve increase increases jobs month per population rate roughly situation takes truly until work
The unemployment situation won't truly improve until businesses increase hiring a lot more than they did in February. It takes roughly 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, as population growth increases the work force.
confidence consumer evidence items liable month next spending
All the evidence on consumer confidence would tell us that all spending on big-ticket items is liable to plummet in the next month or two.
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.