Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
clear cutting economic outlook stronger whatever
I think it is clear that, whatever the economic outlook was on Monday, the outlook is shakier now, and there are stronger arguments for cutting rates.
certainly hiring indication soon strong
It certainly too soon to be sure, but I think it's a very strong indication that hiring is getting on track.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
absolutely change conduct monetary setting
I think we're going to see absolutely more of the same. I don't think there will be any discernible change in the conduct of setting monetary policy.
chance good next pause perfectly
There is a perfectly good chance they will pause at the next meeting.
again missing rate shooting unless
Unless we're missing something, the unemployment rate will be shooting back up again very soon.
contains dropped force given good hope jobs looking people rising signals work
Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
affect amount context disappears energy happens huge interest national prices regardless sort statistics
Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.
bark concern deficits economic far near record shows simply spark threat trade worse
Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.
fact falling given headline news number recovery signals volatility
Given the volatility of the report, I don't put a lot of credence in the forecasts. The headline number is the news and the fact that it went up signals that the recovery isn't falling apart.
absorb basis clear devastated economy hit hurricane katrina momentum recover
Hurricane Katrina undoubtedly devastated individuals and communities... but on a macro-economic basis it's clear that the US economy has more than enough momentum to absorb the hit and recover quickly.
against feared hurricane katrina looking odds oil price prove shock slow worry
Looking forward, we have Katrina and the price of oil to worry about. I think the odds are still against it, but Hurricane Katrina could prove to be the exogenous shock that we've feared could dramatically slow or even derail the expansion.
ahead baked beyond cranking current cut faster fed forces interest late looking rates risk serious
Looking ahead beyond the current gloom, there is a serious risk that we already have inflationary forces baked into the system. By late spring, the Fed could be cranking up interest rates even faster than they cut them.
burst capturing creative danger employers greenspan happening hidden kinds point provoke report sure suspicion wage ways
If there is a danger, it is that the report isn't capturing creative and hidden ways employers are boosting wages. I'm sure Greenspan has a sneaking suspicion that these kinds of things are happening and that they may at some point provoke a burst of wage inflation.