Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
contains dropped force given good hope jobs looking people rising signals work
Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
adding businesses growing job market point profits
I think the job market is on a roll. Businesses are doing pretty well these days. Profits are growing nicely. I think businesses are at a point where they feel more comfortable adding people.
job market
I think the job market is on a roll.
certain changed confidence data less momentum month past
I think the economy's momentum is still upward, but the data that have come out in the past month have weakened my confidence in that prediction. I haven't changed my forecast, but I've become a lot less certain about it.
chairman fed greenspan money period pumping start third toward weakness
I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
expect growth healthy next percent totally
I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
absolutely change conduct monetary setting
I think we're going to see absolutely more of the same. I don't think there will be any discernible change in the conduct of setting monetary policy.
actions bona confidence cut demand directly downward edge impact indirectly job lay losses newly recession spending spiral tend
Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
growth job
Job growth has kind of stalled out. It's a puzzle.
clear cutting economic outlook stronger whatever
I think it is clear that, whatever the economic outlook was on Monday, the outlook is shakier now, and there are stronger arguments for cutting rates.
certainly hiring indication soon strong
It certainly too soon to be sure, but I think it's a very strong indication that hiring is getting on track.
chance good next pause perfectly
There is a perfectly good chance they will pause at the next meeting.
again missing rate shooting unless
Unless we're missing something, the unemployment rate will be shooting back up again very soon.