Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
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We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news.
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Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.
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Looking forward, we have Katrina and the price of oil to worry about. I think the odds are still against it, but Hurricane Katrina could prove to be the exogenous shock that we've feared could dramatically slow or even derail the expansion.
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Looking ahead beyond the current gloom, there is a serious risk that we already have inflationary forces baked into the system. By late spring, the Fed could be cranking up interest rates even faster than they cut them.
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People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
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With the U.S. slowdown looking more real each day, the trade deficit may have passed its peak. The slowdown hadn't hit full force yet in October. U.S. consumers are still sucking in massive amounts of imports. The slowdown will be more clearly seen in November and December's figures. If imported goods start to pile up on retailers' shelves this holiday season, imports could drop off fast.
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It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
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You are seeing a large number of people coming out of the woodwork because there are jobs to be found. People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
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The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.
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With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
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With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP (gross domestic product) growth have increased substantially.
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We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
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The fact that prices have come down makes people feel better and they think the future looks better.
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We have solid job growth, but no significant inflationary pressures.