Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
certainly economy inflation problem weak
There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is.
inflation wholesale
There really is no inflation at the wholesale level.
capital either gains good hiring lower profits serious spending sustain wage wages
There must be some serious gains going on in either profits or wage rates. If it's going to profits, we should see more capital spending and hiring ahead, and if it's going to wages or lower prices, that should sustain consumption growth. Either way, it's good for the outlook.
bottom consensus expecting fact less line number
The bottom line is, any number over 50 is encouraging. The fact that it's a little less than the consensus was expecting I don't think is that big of a deal.
enormous incidents month particular potential push release retail sales series timing
This is a series that bounces around from one month to the next. There's enormous potential for particular incidents -- the weather, the timing of Easter, the release of a new movie -- to push retail sales around from one month to the next.
absolutely economic greenspan growth jobs perfect pulling seemed signs soft
This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion.
people recession report represents simply
This is simply what a recession is like. This report represents real people and real pain, especially around the holidays.
employment good heading jobs looking moment point rate sign start
The moment they think there are jobs there, they'll be out looking and the employment rate will start heading up again. I think that's on the whole a good sign at this point in the cycle.
certain changed confidence data less momentum month past
I think the economy's momentum is still upward, but the data that have come out in the past month have weakened my confidence in that prediction. I haven't changed my forecast, but I've become a lot less certain about it.
chairman fed greenspan money period pumping start third toward weakness
I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
expect growth healthy next percent totally
I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
jobs looking people worth
People are now looking for jobs because it is now worth looking.
actions bona confidence cut demand directly downward edge impact indirectly job lay losses newly recession spending spiral tend
Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
growth job
Job growth has kind of stalled out. It's a puzzle.