Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
brakes earnings economy either employment fed greenspan growth higher inflation needs point sit slowing starting tap weak
Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.
businesses competition cruel economic flat growth hard prices profits showing statistics wages year
Many businesses see statistics showing economic growth as a cruel joke. Competition is still brutal, wages are still rising, prices are still flat or falling, and profits are as hard to find as they were a year ago.
cannot continue demand fact good growth happening jobs news translate workers
The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
almost anywhere growth looking shocking
It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
actions bona chances confidence cut demand directly downward edge growth impact increased indirectly job lay losses negative newly odds perhaps quarter recession spending spiral tend
With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP growth have increased substantially, and the chances of a full-fledged recession just went up -- perhaps approaching 50-50. Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
domestic growth increased negative odds quarter
With today's report, the odds of a negative quarter of GDP (gross domestic product) growth have increased substantially.
catching driving economy force forward growth happens hard job labor matter months moving quite rate several stop
We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
dramatic explaining factors growth job looking piece prevent rather special
We're still looking at job growth, but not enough to prevent unemployment from rising. If there were no special factors explaining this, it would be a rather dramatic piece of news.
dangerous encourage growth job people room sitting wage worry
A lot of people must still be sitting on the sidelines. This kind of job growth will encourage them, but I don't see it sparking a surge in wage costs. We still have a lot more room for job growth before we have to worry about venturing into dangerous inflationary territory.
absolutely economic greenspan growth jobs perfect pulling seemed signs soft
This is a perfect jobs report. Job growth slowed significantly and there are absolutely no signs of inflation. Greenspan may be pulling off what once seemed impossible: two soft landings in one economic expansion.
expect growth healthy next percent totally
I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
growth job
Job growth has kind of stalled out. It's a puzzle.
boost cuts defense growth net next percent produce rise risks spending stimulus tax
If even 5 to 6 percent GDP growth isn't enough to get any net hiring, then the risks rise that the stimulus from the tax cuts and defense spending could produce a one-time boost that will fizzle out next year.
businesses growth hiring improve increase increases jobs month per population rate roughly situation takes truly until work
The unemployment situation won't truly improve until businesses increase hiring a lot more than they did in February. It takes roughly 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, as population growth increases the work force.