Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
add bit clearly continue feels job jobs market million move tight year
There is still a big backlog to be made up before it feels like a tight job market. Clearly it's a tighter job market than it was a year ago, and if we continue to add a million jobs a quarter, we'll move in that direction. But I think it will take a little bit of time.
added continue economy employment fuel gain higher jobs kicks labor last link market recovery slowly weakest
While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
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Considering the impact of the hurricanes and record heating bills last year, the economy continues to show remarkable resilience.
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The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.
inflation problem stage
It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.
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It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
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The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.
cutting fed number rates relax
This is kind of number that will let the Fed relax and keep cutting rates as long as they see a need.
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This is consistent with the view that the U.S. economy really is on the road to recovery. Consumers are not pulling back. Consumer spending is going to get us into a second half 2001 rebound.
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The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to.
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It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.
clearly ease fed free good inclined means
It's clearly good news. Clearly it means that the Fed is still free to ease as much as they are inclined to.