Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
consumers good gradually half health labor market news recovery seeing starting wash
Now we're starting to see that wash out, and we're seeing that the labor market really has been gradually strengthening for most of the first half of this year. And this is fundamentally good news for consumers and for the health of the recovery going forward.
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What worries me the most is a slip backward becoming a spiral downward. Jobs are the linchpin of both consumer confidence and consumer spending. We can't sustain many more losses like this without that downward spiral getting started. This is the kind of data that could make the Fed think about easing again.
clearly consumers deficit drop force full goods hit holiday imported imports looking massive november passed pile seen shelves start sucking trade
With the U.S. slowdown looking more real each day, the trade deficit may have passed its peak. The slowdown hadn't hit full force yet in October. U.S. consumers are still sucking in massive amounts of imports. The slowdown will be more clearly seen in November and December's figures. If imported goods start to pile up on retailers' shelves this holiday season, imports could drop off fast.
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With the tide turning on job growth, consumer sentiment going into the holidays is far better than last year, even if it's not quite happy days are here again.
above consumer hang level spending trend
I don't really see this as down; it's really flat. We're still at a level well above the post-Sept. 11 low; and so long as it doesn't trend downward, I'm comfortable with the idea that consumer spending is going to hang in there.
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The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.
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This is consistent with the view that the U.S. economy really is on the road to recovery. Consumers are not pulling back. Consumer spending is going to get us into a second half 2001 rebound.
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It's reassuring. It is true that the consumer is the only part of the economy that's keeping the expansion going right now.
confidence consumer feels holding low mainly maybe positive
Granted, it feels bad, but that's mainly because we had it so good. In reality, we still have positive growth, low unemployment (even if it rising), and low inflation. Maybe that's why consumer confidence is holding up.
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All the evidence on consumer confidence would tell us that all spending on big-ticket items is liable to plummet in the next month or two.
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There are a lot of untied ends so far, but we want to get these students into school, in a stable environment, as soon as possible. We want these students to be in an environment where they will be cared for - that will help them rebuild their lives and give them a sense that they are moving on.
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There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.
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We knew that it was a wet month and that rain tends to keep people away from shopping, so I thing a large part of this is actually a weather story.
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We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.