Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
appear businesses increase increasing labor profits quite seem
Businesses seem to be doing everything they can to increase profits without increasing hiring. Unfortunately for the labor market, they appear to be quite successful.
circumstance dime fed instrument monetary perfect policy pull pushing soon spending starts turn
Monetary policy is the perfect instrument for these circumstances. The Fed can keep pushing as needed, but still can turn on a dime and pull back as soon as spending starts to rebound.
consumers good gradually half health labor market news recovery seeing starting wash
Now we're starting to see that wash out, and we're seeing that the labor market really has been gradually strengthening for most of the first half of this year. And this is fundamentally good news for consumers and for the health of the recovery going forward.
employment next piece report
Next week's employment report will be a much more important piece of new information.
businesses competition cruel economic flat growth hard prices profits showing statistics wages year
Many businesses see statistics showing economic growth as a cruel joke. Competition is still brutal, wages are still rising, prices are still flat or falling, and profits are as hard to find as they were a year ago.
fact future looks people prices
The fact that prices have come down makes people feel better and they think the future looks better.
job solid
We have solid job growth, but no significant inflationary pressures.
few fits inflation labor market months picture turned
It fits in with the picture that the labor market is turned, inflation has turned and in a few more months they'll be tightening.
affect amount context disappears energy happens huge interest national prices regardless sort statistics
Regardless of what happens to energy prices and interest rates, homebuilding is going to happen and that's going to affect the national statistics but not by a huge amount ... it sort of disappears in the context of the national economy.
bark concern deficits economic far near record shows simply spark threat trade worse
Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.
chairman fed greenspan money period pumping start third toward weakness
I think we're toward the end of a period of real weakness and, by the third quarter, all the money (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan and the Fed have been pumping out will start to be spent.
expect growth healthy next percent totally
I think it's totally a blip. I expect to see pretty healthy growth in 2006. We'll be back to 4 percent next quarter.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
advance combined data funny official report
The advance GDP report is a funny animal. It's a combination of data that's already out there combined with official guesses. There isn't a lot of real new news.