Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
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There are a lot of untied ends so far, but we want to get these students into school, in a stable environment, as soon as possible. We want these students to be in an environment where they will be cared for - that will help them rebuild their lives and give them a sense that they are moving on.
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We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
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For now, however, inflation is a problem that we would welcome. Over the short-term, in the absence of any current inflation threats, it makes sense to do whatever we can to get the economy moving again.
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The economy is neither roaring nor stalling; it's clearly out of the soft patch and moving along at a decent pace, and that's all the Fed needs right now.
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The inflation threat has receded yet again. I can't see the Fed moving now at least until early next year. They have almost no evidence of inflationary pressures and there are hints that the economy finally is slowing.
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There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.
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We knew that it was a wet month and that rain tends to keep people away from shopping, so I thing a large part of this is actually a weather story.
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We're not only stuck in a soft patch; we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.
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Even though there probably is a recovery in the pipeline, there isn't going to be any clear evidence of it by the time we get around to the next meeting.
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Even though it's improving, there's still an awful lot of people who dropped out of work force and are waiting to be pulled back in.
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Everything else suggests quite a lot of momentum in the economy.
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At this point I am guessing that the Fed is pretty committed to raising rates in January but after that all bets are off.
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The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now.
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We were expecting to celebrate New Year's and instead got slapped with a pink slip.