Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
few fits inflation labor market months picture turned
It fits in with the picture that the labor market is turned, inflation has turned and in a few more months they'll be tightening.
absence core few given good happening months pause rather risk seems time
Given the absence of core inflation, it seems to me as good a time as any to pause and see what's happening for a few months rather than overshoot and risk a recession.
knew large month people rain tends weather wet
We knew that it was a wet month and that rain tends to keep people away from shopping, so I thing a large part of this is actually a weather story.
absorb increase jobs labor month natural numbers order positive rate rather smaller takes
It takes something on the order of 150,000 new jobs a month to absorb the natural increase in the labor force. As long as we keep getting smaller positive numbers than that, the unemployment rate should be trending up rather than down.
catching driving economy force forward growth happens hard job labor matter months moving quite rate several stop
We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
enormous incidents month particular potential push release retail sales series timing
This is a series that bounces around from one month to the next. There's enormous potential for particular incidents -- the weather, the timing of Easter, the release of a new movie -- to push retail sales around from one month to the next.
certain changed confidence data less momentum month past
I think the economy's momentum is still upward, but the data that have come out in the past month have weakened my confidence in that prediction. I haven't changed my forecast, but I've become a lot less certain about it.
aggressive cut expected far fed lead likely meeting month report seems
I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.
economic fact good month news
But you have to come back to the fact that another good month is another good month. And that is good news for the economic recovery.
businesses growth hiring improve increase increases jobs month per population rate roughly situation takes truly until work
The unemployment situation won't truly improve until businesses increase hiring a lot more than they did in February. It takes roughly 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep the unemployment rate steady, as population growth increases the work force.
confidence consumer evidence items liable month next spending
All the evidence on consumer confidence would tell us that all spending on big-ticket items is liable to plummet in the next month or two.
crashed cut emergency evidence happened market panic rate treat yesterday
It would be kind of like when they put through a substantial emergency rate cut when the market crashed in 1987. I don't think it is evidence of panic to treat what happened yesterday as an emergency. It's an emergency on many levels.
road worst
The worst is over. We're on the road to recovery.
cause cents continue ease economy growing healthy inch inflation less might pressures rate rise wages worry
The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.