Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
certainty largely
But that's still largely a hope, not a certainty.
certainly economy inflation problem weak
There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is.
alan call certainly early greenspan heading help inflation relax report seem sign sleep smooth soft turn wage
It's too early to call a turn in the trend, so Alan Greenspan can't relax completely, but it's certainly the kind of report that will help him sleep better. There's still no sign of wage inflation and we seem to be heading for a soft landing: a smooth slowdown into sustainable non-inflationary growth.
appeal bad certain inflation nice number round stop
There is a certain appeal to going to a nice round number like 5 percent. But if we get some bad inflation numbers, then they won't stop at 5 percent.
aggressive almost certainly credible deal delayed demand effects enjoy farther faster fed monetary problem rates rise seems start year
When demand does start to rebound, the Fed will have to deal with the delayed effects of a year of aggressive monetary stimulus. Short-term rates will almost certainly have to rise faster and farther than seems credible today. Of course, this is a problem that we now feel we would enjoy facing.
certain changed confidence data less momentum month past
I think the economy's momentum is still upward, but the data that have come out in the past month have weakened my confidence in that prediction. I haven't changed my forecast, but I've become a lot less certain about it.
certainly hiring indication soon strong
It certainly too soon to be sure, but I think it's a very strong indication that hiring is getting on track.
inflation potential reality
Inflation is a potential risk. It's not a reality yet.
inflation problem stage
It's still the same story, that there really is no inflation problem at this stage of the cycle.
almost anywhere growth looking shocking
It's shocking that you're looking at almost no growth anywhere else.
buying christmas close coming consumer gauge industry number onto patterns perhaps represents retail sales season sentiment shopping since year
The retail sales number is perhaps more important than it would look at first sight. Since we're coming so close to the Christmas shopping season when most of the retail sales of the year happen, anything that represents a gauge of consumer sentiment and consumer buying patterns is going to be latched onto by the retail industry as an important indicator.
cutting fed number rates relax
This is kind of number that will let the Fed relax and keep cutting rates as long as they see a need.
consistent consumer consumers economy half pulling road second spending view
This is consistent with the view that the U.S. economy really is on the road to recovery. Consumers are not pulling back. Consumer spending is going to get us into a second half 2001 rebound.
carry chairman fed latitude wants
The Fed chairman has a lot of latitude to do things the way he wants to. I don't see why he wouldn't carry the day the way he wants to.