Bill Cheney
Bill Cheney
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The rise in wages of 6 cents might cause jitters, but wage inflation is less of a worry now, especially with productivity still growing at a healthy clip. As the economy slows, the unemployment rate will continue to inch up and wage pressures should ease further.
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While we're still skating on the edge of recession, I think the outlook for the economy is now quite encouraging. We may not feel great right now, but if a recession is a nasty case of the flu, the good news is that all we're suffering now is just a really bad cold.
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Weak employment growth but higher hourly earnings point Greenspan and the Fed in two different directions. Either the economy is slowing down and the Fed needs to sit tight, or inflation is starting to take off and another tap on the brakes may be necessary.
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Today's rate cut was no surprise. Even the half-point cut was more or less expected. In fact, the economy is still weak enough for the Fed to feel free to keep easing.
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While the labor market may feel like the weakest link in the recovery, really it's the last link. As long as employment doesn't collapse, the recovery will continue to gain strength. As it does, slowly jobs will be added and they will be the fuel that kicks the economy into a higher gear.
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Considering the impact of the hurricanes and record heating bills last year, the economy continues to show remarkable resilience.
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We're still several months away from job growth catching up with labor force growth and driving the unemployment rate back down, but that's really just a matter of time. Our economy is moving again, and once that happens it's actually quite hard to stop the forward momentum.
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There really is no inflation problem right now, and there's certainly nothing in the pipeline, with the economy as weak as it is.
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Hurricane Katrina undoubtedly devastated individuals and communities... but on a macro-economic basis it's clear that the US economy has more than enough momentum to absorb the hit and recover quickly.
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It's reassuring. It is true that the consumer is the only part of the economy that's keeping the expansion going right now.
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This is consistent with the view that the U.S. economy really is on the road to recovery. Consumers are not pulling back. Consumer spending is going to get us into a second half 2001 rebound.
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For now, however, inflation is a problem that we would welcome. Over the short-term, in the absence of any current inflation threats, it makes sense to do whatever we can to get the economy moving again.
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I don't think we can discount the legitimate concern that the Fed has been pumping too much liquidity into the economy. It may be that they have to backpedal furiously as the economy starts to recover. Inflation has been down for so long, it may be hard to imagine it ever getting back up -- but you better believe it still can.
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The economy is neither roaring nor stalling; it's clearly out of the soft patch and moving along at a decent pace, and that's all the Fed needs right now.