Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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The CPI will still have an influence on the Fed meeting. You are in a bear market in technology stocks and you'll have to accept that. You're not going to get anything significant until the second half of the year.
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The CPI will still have an influence on the Fed meeting, ... You are in a bear market in technology stocks and you'll have to accept that. You're not going to get anything significant until the second half of the year.
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The reflection of what Cisco says is an absolute reflection of the economy. If Cisco is giving this forward look beyond the first quarter, then the suspicion of a possibility for a second half upturn may not be as evident.
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I think people are just abandoning technology, especially when you can't count on a 'Nokia' that hasn't missed (expectations) in years. The point is that there's nothing wrong with these companies - what's wrong is that analysts were not looking at the second half of the year. What's happening now is estimates are going to come down to match the reality of the economic situation.
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Today, the catalyst in technology was the report that PC sales in the second quarter slowed. The PC sector feeds into the semiconductor sector, which feeds into other parts of technology.
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The market remains concerned with the progress of the earnings beyond the second quarter.
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There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
relationship
The P&G story is a lot more significant than just its relationship to P&G.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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This puts 5.25% on the fed funds rate back on the table. It's not the job of anyone to interpret what a market's reaction to a comment will be. This has added volatility on a day-to-day basis, so opinions can change that quickly when they shouldn't. It's great to be flexible, but it's not healthy to investors.
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There are no major positions being taken ahead of the Fed. I think people are just being very short-term oriented - you see a stock that has a good story and you invest. But you do have to be careful - you don't want to overstay your welcome in any stock.