Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I'm neutral on the market here, as I believe stocks will be caught in a range as investors try to figure out the story of inflation and economic growth going forward.
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I like Wells Fargo. Super regional bank, great earnings growth, around 13-14 percent year over year. They just got past their 1 millionth on-line investor, and I want to have a super regional bank or a large bank that has an online presence.
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We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices. But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation.
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Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
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You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.
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There's going to be this flip-flop next week and continually until we get through earnings season, going from earnings to worrying about the economic slowdown and what inflation brings so I think next week is going to be marked by that. We're getting to the point where the market needs good earnings. It needs to have a catalyst to get the growth sector moving again.
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You're getting a lot of positive sentiment in the market and a lot of rotational shifting toward growth. It doesn't say that earnings are going to be better but it does lead one to believe that a lot of the bad news may already be built in.
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I believe that the future of McDonald's is going to be their international growth. Let's not forget what President Bush is trying to do in Russia. Russia eventually is going to have to be our friend versus all this nonsense terrorism that's going on in the world, ... So, does the overseas market concern me? It doesn't because they are looking to marginalize that growth of 1-to-2 percent and diversify at the same time. I think the bad things are behind it and I like the stock.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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I think next week it will be important to see two things: solid numbers out of growth companies and seeing still a steady stream of economic numbers showing the required slowing of the economy with no inflation.
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Global markets are the best investment at this point. The growth story developing globally is strong, the companies have better valuations, and the trend is doing well.
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It is just an affirmation that the Nasdaq represents the growth sector of the investment universe. That is where much money is being put to work the last month.
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Growth stocks on the large cap front with perceived consistent earnings can be looked at as better values.
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It doesn't really determine that this year is going to be a down year. What it really indicates is the confusion over whether we're in a growth economy or not.