Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
close curve deal extremely federal high hope market meeting next note rally recession reserve slowing until worried yield
It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way. The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
energy fed hurricane major market quickly risks seemed worry
I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way, ... The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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Earnings are coming in better than expected, and they're helping the market preserve the rally, but the overriding concern to me is high energy prices and what the Fed is doing.
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Either you believe the markets or so don't believe the markets. There's no in-between here. The bulls are very vigorous and the bears are very vigorous.
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The tame retail sales outlook helped the bond market. The market rewarded that with a very strong day. Financials and technology stocks righted themselves. We're on the cusp of taking out some important resistance levels.
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Every piece of bad news that comes out in the market ... is ignored, ... looking forward to 2002, in the second-half, when a recovery is going to be in effect.
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There's going to be this flip-flop next week and continually until we get through earnings season, going from earnings to worrying about the economic slowdown and what inflation brings so I think next week is going to be marked by that. We're getting to the point where the market needs good earnings. It needs to have a catalyst to get the growth sector moving again.
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There's more of a defensive style coming into the market. People are going to look for the opportunity to be in the market during this (results) season and will look at more defensive investments until we get through pre-releases. I'm no longer fearful of earnings, I'm fearful of the pre-releases.
continue driven happen market rally whether year
The traditional year-end rally didn't happen this year and the 'January Effect' doesn't look like it's going to occur. This is just a wait-and-see market right now that will continue to be driven by important catalysts, whether geopolitical or earnings-based.
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We're not at the beginning of a decline. We don't believe you're about to enter another horrendous down phase in the market measured by the Nasdaq. We think there are some tough times ahead over the next one to three months. But if you take a longer view of that, many of these companies in the Nasdaq big cap are starting to come down to levels that look fairly attractive on a growth basis.
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The 10-year bond looks like it's headed higher, so I think the feeling is starting to pervade Wall Street that economy's fine and interest rates are heading higher. But the market has (also) been choppy and struggling with some key technical levels.
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I think individuals should still be willing to buy weakness out there, ... I don't think we're entering another bear market right now.
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I think this week's performance has been very indicative of a bottom. The market made a lot of sense this week, since the Fed really helped to ensure the positive psychology that is needed to maintain consumer and investor confidence.