Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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These companies' businesses haven't collapsed like tech companies' did. But they've withered and they're losing their reputations and their investor bases.
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Biotechnology is not going away and if investors are looking for an entry point, this might be it.
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I think this week's performance has been very indicative of a bottom. The market made a lot of sense this week, since the Fed really helped to ensure the positive psychology that is needed to maintain consumer and investor confidence.
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What will frame investor decision-making in August is going to be totally Fed-driven. We've gotten the anecdotal comments from Mr. Greenspan that we can achieve a slower growth landing but we now have to see that anecdotal evidence turn into fact.
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There is also a little bit of nervousness ahead of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to be strong. It just focuses investors on the higher interest rates that are still in the offing.
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There is a substantial group of investors who believe the stock market will start to anticipate an (economic) recovery. The more rate cuts we get, the more likely the recovery is -- I'm looking at this as a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
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Traders are dominating this market when investors are just waiting for these pre-releases to really reveal what these companies look like. We're just waiting for the first signs of a turn and there's little optimism as we go through this pre-release season and no one is focusing on the second-half of the year (2001).
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I think it's too late to be worried about where your tech stock is going to go from here. There are some opportunities out there and we are aware of the short-term problems in the marketplace with the Fed being aggressive. So, we're not looking for a very vigorous rally over the next one to three months. There will be trading rallies. But the investor, the small investor, the intermediate-to-long-term investor should use the summer time, which is seasonally weak for technology stocks, to start to accumulate an easier way into some of these great companies,
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I'm neutral on the market here, as I believe stocks will be caught in a range as investors try to figure out the story of inflation and economic growth going forward.
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The idea is that interest rates will affect the old-economy companies more, because they are more interest rate sensitive. You will probably have less of an effect on technology stocks, and there is a lot of bargain-hunting going on. I think investors are a little more comfortable coming into these blue chips down 30 percent.
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The market has quickly forgotten yesterday's good commentary from Mr. Greenspan and has focused on a quality-of-earnings issue. It's almost like investors are looking for a reason to sell.
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You continue to have investors weighing strong earnings -- in this case Yahoo! and Intel -- versus the fear of inflation again.
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I do believe an investor shouldn't change their philosophy just because it's post-Fed, ... I think the aggressive, more short term oriented philosophy that has worked the first seven months of the year will still be the philosophy until that strategy is proven to be wrong.
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I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,