Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
economy fed guidance guiding neutral slowing toward
If we get any guidance that the Fed would be guiding toward a neutral stance, that could be a (positive) impetus, ... The economy is slowing but not recessing and the Fed will be there if necessary.
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You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.
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We seem to go from worries about the economy slowing down to appreciating that the economy remains strong and can bounce back from slower fourth-quarter GDP growth.
below bullish concerned drop economy numbers percent report saw slowing support today
The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
economy economy-and-economics fed shows slowing stop taken
Anything that shows the economy is slowing will be taken very well by the market. But the Fed is still out there and I don't think we should get used to the (idea) the Fed going to stop (raising rates) in June.
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I think we really have to get to the next Fed meeting before anything significant happens. We have to see the emphasis on a slowing economy, and that's key to seeing that there won't be an open-ended succession of rate hikes.
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I think next week it will be important to see two things: solid numbers out of growth companies and seeing still a steady stream of economic numbers showing the required slowing of the economy with no inflation.
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The intermediate background look in terms of interest rates peaking and the economy slowing to a more sustainable pace without any undue harm is slowly going to play itself out. I would be very shocked if the GDP came in anywhere higher than estimates because Wall Street is already expressing its confidence that the economy is slowing down.
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The economy is already slowing down without the impact of that 50 basis point hike last month, and I think what you have to look at here is the ending of the interest rate cycle. The growth stocks are technology stocks. And at this time it's a very seasonal thing as well. We are coming to the end of the quarter, so you are going to just get the great stock into the portfolios and sell the weak ones.
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The market has two overhangs. It has the interest rate concern and it has the concern of whether a soft landing is achievable. The interest rate concern is over but the soft landing is another question. We don't know if the economy is slowing enough or slowing too fast and that concern, as it relates to earnings, is weighing on the market a little.
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The market is operating under a little bit of a caution flag here, with energy prices way too high and a fourth quarter starting to show a slowing earnings trend.
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I do believe it's the weakening economy, where cyclical stocks can only gain strength on the anticipation of an economy solidifying, and any evidence of an economy slowing more than expected is not good news.
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I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,