Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I'm neutral on the market here, as I believe stocks will be caught in a range as investors try to figure out the story of inflation and economic growth going forward.
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Either people are going to reposition away from technology and seek a home in the migration away from technology, which is why you have other sectors moving. For those who are tech players, it's going to leave those stocks that may have some concerns over future earnings and it's going to stay there.
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You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.
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The moves in media stocks are never earnings based.
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The stocks that are up today are euro-based. Let's hope we can make the case that the euro problem is closer to (being) resolved than before and that's a good sign today. Whatever overhanging concerns can be relieved will help the market.
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The stocks that are up today are euro-based, ... Let's hope we can make the case that the euro problem is closer to (being) resolved than before and that's a good sign today. Whatever overhanging concerns can be relieved will help the market.
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The tame retail sales outlook helped the bond market. The market rewarded that with a very strong day. Financials and technology stocks righted themselves. We're on the cusp of taking out some important resistance levels.
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Based upon how we've seen retail stocks perform, any continued low (consumer confidence) number puts a crimp in the Christmas spending story.
current cyclical stocks
It's surprising, but cyclical stocks should do better, ... And when you look at cyclicality, you don't look at current earnings.
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They're down around 15 to 20 percent from their highs. You've got an opportunity to buy some of these bank stocks at decent values here.
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It's a very tough environment for technology. There's no positive guidance in technology. PC stocks remain under pressure and Hewlett-Packard is a good example of that.
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It is profit warnings and it's taking down more of the market than it probably should. The profit warnings are very specific to stocks that have not been performing well anyway.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.