Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
entry investors looking might
Biotechnology is not going away and if investors are looking for an entry point, this might be it.
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There is also a little bit of nervousness ahead of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to be strong. It just focuses investors on the higher interest rates that are still in the offing.
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There is a substantial group of investors who believe the stock market will start to anticipate an (economic) recovery. The more rate cuts we get, the more likely the recovery is -- I'm looking at this as a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
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Traders are dominating this market when investors are just waiting for these pre-releases to really reveal what these companies look like. We're just waiting for the first signs of a turn and there's little optimism as we go through this pre-release season and no one is focusing on the second-half of the year (2001).
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I'm neutral on the market here, as I believe stocks will be caught in a range as investors try to figure out the story of inflation and economic growth going forward.
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The idea is that interest rates will affect the old-economy companies more, because they are more interest rate sensitive. You will probably have less of an effect on technology stocks, and there is a lot of bargain-hunting going on. I think investors are a little more comfortable coming into these blue chips down 30 percent.
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The market has quickly forgotten yesterday's good commentary from Mr. Greenspan and has focused on a quality-of-earnings issue. It's almost like investors are looking for a reason to sell.
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You continue to have investors weighing strong earnings -- in this case Yahoo! and Intel -- versus the fear of inflation again.
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I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,
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We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
positive provide typical
It was a little better than a typical September, but it didn't provide any big positive surprises.
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These companies' businesses haven't collapsed like tech companies' did. But they've withered and they're losing their reputations and their investor bases.
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The stocks that are up today are euro-based. Let's hope we can make the case that the euro problem is closer to (being) resolved than before and that's a good sign today. Whatever overhanging concerns can be relieved will help the market.