Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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The situation is very tenuous on the equipment side and any slowdown in demand in the equipment side of the equation, when you are priced to perfection, means these companies are still very expensive,
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Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
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We're not at the beginning of a decline. We don't believe you're about to enter another horrendous down phase in the market measured by the Nasdaq. We think there are some tough times ahead over the next one to three months. But if you take a longer view of that, many of these companies in the Nasdaq big cap are starting to come down to levels that look fairly attractive on a growth basis.
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I think people are just abandoning technology, especially when you can't count on a 'Nokia' that hasn't missed (expectations) in years. The point is that there's nothing wrong with these companies - what's wrong is that analysts were not looking at the second half of the year. What's happening now is estimates are going to come down to match the reality of the economic situation.
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For some reason, today we're painting the whole picture with a broad brush and a few profit warnings are really damaging that landscape for the companies that are good (performers).
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You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.
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It's the companies that came through the quarter without any problems that are the ones reacting well and they're not as cyclical as some of the others.
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It is quite astounding. One week revenue-based companies are forbidden (psychologically) from investors' minds and one week later, as interest rate (fears) return, technology (stock) is the place to be because they are less affected.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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Traders are dominating this market when investors are just waiting for these pre-releases to really reveal what these companies look like. We're just waiting for the first signs of a turn and there's little optimism as we go through this pre-release season and no one is focusing on the second-half of the year (2001).
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This is a market that is assuming everything is going to get better. There's been too much commentary by the chairmen of these companies that these problems are inventory but everything is based on a turn of the economy ? that's what the Fed is there for.
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I think, ... that Pfizer is going to benefit from their merger with Warner-Lambert. I think that makes a very good deal. But most pharmaceutical companies do eventually strike deals with biotech companies in terms of marketing their product. And the genomic companies don't have a lot of cash. They have a lot of high valuations, but they don't have a lot of dollars to spend. So, they usually look toward the pharmaceutical sector to help them out, which usually helps both sectors.
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I think it's the pattern from pre-announcements to earnings ? these are two companies (Motorola, Yahoo!) that have beaten lowered expectations, beating pre-announcements. When you expand that to the Microsoft story, it makes it even more powerful today.