Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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The market is going to want to see in those numbers some clues that the PC market is picking up post-Y2K.
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The market is going to remain on the defensive and start to look at this developing technology story. To technology, that story is very important. It filters throughout the whole chain of PC sales to companies that produce chips.
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The market is going to continue to be buffeted by this political story that doesn't go away. If we can get past that, hopefully the market will react positively to the end of a process.
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The market is exhibiting the typical end-of-year patterns of low volume, lackluster trading and little volatility.
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The market is clearly divided right now. Those who are looking at 2005 expectations think we can see moderate stock gains, those who are looking out at 2006 are more concerned.
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And (Chase) is trading at 10 times next year's earnings. I think the stock is very cheap from a valuation basis, and it's not something that will move immediately. There are cost restructurings to go into this merger; but over time, I think the stock looks good. And I have a 12-month target of around $60 on that,
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The likelihood of inflationary pressures is increasing. The likelihood that the (Federal Reserve) is going to do something is increasing.
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A lot hinges on the numbers. If they're good, the market rallies. If we get any suspicious numbers, or more accounting-related stories coming into the fray, we're looking at lower prices again. It's a time of caution and some confusion.
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(The GDP) doesn't justify the slower earnings picture later in the year. There's a little bit of saving grace in there because we're seeing a strong economy still with no dramatic inflationary prospects.
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(The GDP) doesn't justify the slower earnings picture later in the year, ... There's a little bit of saving grace in there because we're seeing a strong economy still with no dramatic inflationary prospects.
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The economy is already slowing down without the impact of that 50 basis point hike last month, and I think what you have to look at here is the ending of the interest rate cycle. The growth stocks are technology stocks. And at this time it's a very seasonal thing as well. We are coming to the end of the quarter, so you are going to just get the great stock into the portfolios and sell the weak ones.
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The economy is still strong, earnings will be good, and that bodes well for the stock market,
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The dreaded whisper number -- that's Wall Street for you. This is day-to-day noise. Normal profit taking in the technology area can be considered to be 20 percent to 30 percent moves.
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The fourth quarter is going to be volatile and trying. I don't think the market has fully discounted all the negatives in front of it, including the hurricanes' impact on the economy, higher energy prices on corporate profits, and higher inflation.