Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I'm neutral on the market here, as I believe stocks will be caught in a range as investors try to figure out the story of inflation and economic growth going forward.
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This is clearly a number on wage inflation that the market did not want to see. It's clearly disturbing to see wages at this level and I think it's going to weigh on the market for some time.
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There's going to be this flip-flop next week and continually until we get through earnings season, going from earnings to worrying about the economic slowdown and what inflation brings so I think next week is going to be marked by that. We're getting to the point where the market needs good earnings. It needs to have a catalyst to get the growth sector moving again.
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As long as we continue to see good earnings and the reaction to good earnings positive, then you will see Nasdaq as the sector of choice. The Dow is being weighted by this conflicting (economic) story -- stronger consumer spending and OK-looking inflation numbers. But the tech (sector) is merrily rolling along.
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Next week's retail sales numbers and inflation numbers are going to be some key statistics to give us a little bit more input into where the Fed stands.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought. The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought, ... The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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You continue to have investors weighing strong earnings -- in this case Yahoo! and Intel -- versus the fear of inflation again.
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The inflation story has been the ongoing story for the markets since the Fed raised rates at the September meeting.
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The blue-chips just turned down. Regardless, the retailers were up but really not enough to carry the market.
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The bias still seems to be to the upside. Buyers are optimistic and see the long-term side of the market. The downward pressure now is not that great. The money flow has just been too strong.
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The bias for today and tomorrow should still be to the upside because of the end of the quarter when you get portfolio adjustments.
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The barrage of economic data will be the one saving grace for the markets this week,