Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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There's going to be this flip-flop next week and continually until we get through earnings season, going from earnings to worrying about the economic slowdown and what inflation brings so I think next week is going to be marked by that. We're getting to the point where the market needs good earnings. It needs to have a catalyst to get the growth sector moving again.
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Next week's retail sales numbers and inflation numbers are going to be some key statistics to give us a little bit more input into where the Fed stands.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought. The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought, ... The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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As long as we continue to see good earnings and the reaction to good earnings positive, then you will see Nasdaq as the sector of choice. The Dow is being weighted by this conflicting (economic) story -- stronger consumer spending and OK-looking inflation numbers. But the tech (sector) is merrily rolling along.
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This is clearly a number on wage inflation that the market did not want to see. It's clearly disturbing to see wages at this level and I think it's going to weigh on the market for some time.
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I'm neutral on the market here, as I believe stocks will be caught in a range as investors try to figure out the story of inflation and economic growth going forward.
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The inflation story has been the ongoing story for the markets since the Fed raised rates at the September meeting.
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You continue to have investors weighing strong earnings -- in this case Yahoo! and Intel -- versus the fear of inflation again.
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We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
positive provide typical
It was a little better than a typical September, but it didn't provide any big positive surprises.
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These companies' businesses haven't collapsed like tech companies' did. But they've withered and they're losing their reputations and their investor bases.