Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
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With McDonald's you get a minor dividend of 1 percent and right now, where it's trading, around a 13, 14 price-to-earnings ratio, it is very reasonable, ... A little bit below the S&P average at this point.
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We think 3.5 percent is a good point for the Fed to take a break to measure the economy and the impact of its rate hikes. If the economy does appear to be picking up, they could start raising again.
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I believe that the future of McDonald's is going to be their international growth. Let's not forget what President Bush is trying to do in Russia. Russia eventually is going to have to be our friend versus all this nonsense terrorism that's going on in the world, ... So, does the overseas market concern me? It doesn't because they are looking to marginalize that growth of 1-to-2 percent and diversify at the same time. I think the bad things are behind it and I like the stock.
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With an expected quarter percent rise, the commentary seems a little more hawkish than expected.
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The next three percent move for the S&P could be up, and that would take us to important resistance levels. The question is what is the bias beyond that, what is the next five percent for the market? That's not clear.
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They bought a lot of branches from Fleet, when they merged with Fleet Boston, ... I think you can look for 30 percent gains in that stock for the next two year.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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Trading is going to be dominated by waiting for the Federal Reserve Board. We still expect the Fed to go a quarter of a percentage point, and no change in language.
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They're down around 15 to 20 percent from their highs. You've got an opportunity to buy some of these bank stocks at decent values here.
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I think we're going to go down to the wire whether or not it's a half-percentage point (increase). If you want to maintain market stability, a quarter percentage point could keep the market at bay.
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People look for the summer rally, and people have always complained - well, what happened to the summer rally - not understanding that the summer rally started the day after Memorial Day. So we really have had a very good summer rally. In the Nasdaq, it went up almost 40 percent off of the bottom. The Dow went up around 12 percent off the bottom. The S&P similarly. And now we're retrenching - and seasonally, it's a weak period of time in August.
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I like Wells Fargo. Super regional bank, great earnings growth, around 13-14 percent year over year. They just got past their 1 millionth on-line investor, and I want to have a super regional bank or a large bank that has an online presence.