Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
bad broader certainly changed effect negatives news psychology
There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
concerned direct economy effect either expect hikes interest line looking market number rate remain tame
I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.
accept adjust believe bit dramatic economy effects eventual extent fact fed half horizon interest investment investors market next peak satisfy seeing situation slow slowing soon talk tough wants year
I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,
changed consumer cuts dropping economy economy-and-economics effect equity forward gains giving hamper interest markets mean psychology rate time
I don't think the economy can really withstand the equity markets dropping down and giving back all of its gains ? that would really hamper consumer confidence. The one thing that has changed is psychology ? it's time to look forward to what the effect interest rate cuts mean for the economy.
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The market has created this wealth effect because there have been a lot of gains over the past two or three years, ... That has provided the ability for consumers to increase spending on regular goods and luxury goods.
affect blue chips coming companies economy-and-economics effect interest investors less rates technology
The idea is that interest rates will affect the old-economy companies more, because they are more interest rate sensitive. You will probably have less of an effect on technology stocks, and there is a lot of bargain-hunting going on. I think investors are a little more comfortable coming into these blue chips down 30 percent.
accepted behind best clean companies earnings fact forecasts gotten growth half handful name percent quarter scenes season second stocks surface totally year
We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
affected companies dramatic energy rise seeing starting stocks tech
We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
relationship
The P&G story is a lot more significant than just its relationship to P&G.
below bullish concerned drop economy numbers percent report saw slowing support today
The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
economy economy-and-economics inflation key number seen talk toward whether
The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
added anyone change comment fed funds great healthy interpret job opinions puts quickly rate reaction volatility
This puts 5.25% on the fed funds rate back on the table. It's not the job of anyone to interpret what a market's reaction to a comment will be. This has added volatility on a day-to-day basis, so opinions can change that quickly when they shouldn't. It's great to be flexible, but it's not healthy to investors.
ahead careful good major oriented people positions stock taken welcome
There are no major positions being taken ahead of the Fed. I think people are just being very short-term oriented - you see a stock that has a good story and you invest. But you do have to be careful - you don't want to overstay your welcome in any stock.
hike market negatives reacting several
The only way I can see why the market is not reacting to several negatives out there is the anticipation of one more (rate) hike and we're done.