Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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The only way I can see why the market is not reacting to several negatives out there is the anticipation of one more (rate) hike and we're done.
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I think people are looking forward to the end of rate hikes and if there's no dramatic change in the wording of the statement tomorrow, that could hurt the market.
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I think to an extent we've taken for granted the last few Fed meetings, and next week's meeting takes on more significance, ... A quarter-point hike is pretty much expected, but I think the relative bumpiness of the recent economic news could mean the Fed will indicate that rates may not rise as aggressively last year as people had been thinking.
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A lot of the gains are due to the earnings story. I think the market can deal with one or two more interest rate hikes and believe that the Fed is not going beyond neutral.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought. The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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It was exactly what Wall Street thought, ... The wording was exact -- no hike, sees inflation risk ahead, recent data shows moderating slowdown is still tentative and preliminary, and leaves open (a) rate hike in August.
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This almost assures the fact that we'll see an interest rate hike in November,
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The PPI number on Friday gave us a little bit of a hint that there most likely will be a hike on August 24th, but that'll be it,
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I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.
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Greenspan's commentary sure indicated there is more than one interest-rate hike to come, and that's not what the market wanted to hear.
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The economy is already slowing down without the impact of that 50 basis point hike last month, and I think what you have to look at here is the ending of the interest rate cycle. The growth stocks are technology stocks. And at this time it's a very seasonal thing as well. We are coming to the end of the quarter, so you are going to just get the great stock into the portfolios and sell the weak ones.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.