Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
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Every piece of bad news that comes out in the market ... is ignored, ... looking forward to 2002, in the second-half, when a recovery is going to be in effect.
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This is a time to be very diversified and avoid taking chances. Sometimes being a spectator is not a bad idea.
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You're getting a lot of positive sentiment in the market and a lot of rotational shifting toward growth. It doesn't say that earnings are going to be better but it does lead one to believe that a lot of the bad news may already be built in.
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I believe that the future of McDonald's is going to be their international growth. Let's not forget what President Bush is trying to do in Russia. Russia eventually is going to have to be our friend versus all this nonsense terrorism that's going on in the world, ... So, does the overseas market concern me? It doesn't because they are looking to marginalize that growth of 1-to-2 percent and diversify at the same time. I think the bad things are behind it and I like the stock.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
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The P&G story is a lot more significant than just its relationship to P&G.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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This puts 5.25% on the fed funds rate back on the table. It's not the job of anyone to interpret what a market's reaction to a comment will be. This has added volatility on a day-to-day basis, so opinions can change that quickly when they shouldn't. It's great to be flexible, but it's not healthy to investors.
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There are no major positions being taken ahead of the Fed. I think people are just being very short-term oriented - you see a stock that has a good story and you invest. But you do have to be careful - you don't want to overstay your welcome in any stock.
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The only way I can see why the market is not reacting to several negatives out there is the anticipation of one more (rate) hike and we're done.
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The CPI will still have an influence on the Fed meeting. You are in a bear market in technology stocks and you'll have to accept that. You're not going to get anything significant until the second half of the year.