Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
companies expect greatest growth matters number overweight percent represent sector tech weight year
Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
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The traditional year-end rally didn't happen this year and the 'January Effect' doesn't look like it's going to occur. This is just a wait-and-see market right now that will continue to be driven by important catalysts, whether geopolitical or earnings-based.
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It doesn't really determine that this year is going to be a down year. What it really indicates is the confusion over whether we're in a growth economy or not.
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It's time to start anticipating a recovery. Buy on weakness and look at tech because I think there will be some good stories later in the year ? the time to be fearful of another major drop in the market is just not there.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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Traders are dominating this market when investors are just waiting for these pre-releases to really reveal what these companies look like. We're just waiting for the first signs of a turn and there's little optimism as we go through this pre-release season and no one is focusing on the second-half of the year (2001).
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I think to an extent we've taken for granted the last few Fed meetings, and next week's meeting takes on more significance, ... A quarter-point hike is pretty much expected, but I think the relative bumpiness of the recent economic news could mean the Fed will indicate that rates may not rise as aggressively last year as people had been thinking.
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I think the year starts out very similar to how it's ending. Just because a stock is cheap doesn't mean it should be bought ? you have to look at the growth rate and I think the Fed lowering interest rates is going to be very important.
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Our look for the rest of the year is we're going to rally and worry. We're going to rally and worry some more. And we're going to rally again. I think the concern or the 'worry period' that we're now entering is this cyclical issue again, after this run up in the semiconductors sector and the third-quarter prerelease season, which we're quickly coming to. And I think that's going to give the opportunity for the next run up in the marketplace, which should come somewhere over the next few weeks into the election. The good news, as you pointed out, is that the Fed's done,
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I like Wells Fargo. Super regional bank, great earnings growth, around 13-14 percent year over year. They just got past their 1 millionth on-line investor, and I want to have a super regional bank or a large bank that has an online presence.
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I do believe an investor shouldn't change their philosophy just because it's post-Fed, ... I think the aggressive, more short term oriented philosophy that has worked the first seven months of the year will still be the philosophy until that strategy is proven to be wrong.
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I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,
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We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.