Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I think it's too late to be worried about where your tech stock is going to go from here. There are some opportunities out there and we are aware of the short-term problems in the marketplace with the Fed being aggressive. So, we're not looking for a very vigorous rally over the next one to three months. There will be trading rallies. But the investor, the small investor, the intermediate-to-long-term investor should use the summer time, which is seasonally weak for technology stocks, to start to accumulate an easier way into some of these great companies,
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The problems are the same: Interest rates are high, and the economy is strong. It is affecting those sectors that are credit sensitive.
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This market has got problems and it's got earnings problems and it has not discounted yet. You have to expect to be bombarded every day by more earnings warnings in technology.
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It's the companies that came through the quarter without any problems that are the ones reacting well and they're not as cyclical as some of the others.
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This is a market that is assuming everything is going to get better. There's been too much commentary by the chairmen of these companies that these problems are inventory but everything is based on a turn of the economy ? that's what the Fed is there for.
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Cisco's story was that inventory concerns and demand driven problems are not fixable as early as Wall Street expected, ... People are understanding the impact of what Cisco said. Wall Street wants to believe things are rosy in that sector and they're just not.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
relationship
The P&G story is a lot more significant than just its relationship to P&G.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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This puts 5.25% on the fed funds rate back on the table. It's not the job of anyone to interpret what a market's reaction to a comment will be. This has added volatility on a day-to-day basis, so opinions can change that quickly when they shouldn't. It's great to be flexible, but it's not healthy to investors.
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There are no major positions being taken ahead of the Fed. I think people are just being very short-term oriented - you see a stock that has a good story and you invest. But you do have to be careful - you don't want to overstay your welcome in any stock.