Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
continuity fed few final greenspan hard months throw win worked
Continuity is all but assured. The Fed has worked hard to win credibility and Greenspan is not going to throw it away in the final few months of his term.
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Continuing claims numbers are very closely tied to unemployment, and they are skyrocketing.
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Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.
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I still believe, and I believe this quite strongly, that the manufacturing sector will, in fact, recover. This is only one month.
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It tells us the economy is in a sweet spot,
cause near paralysis state
It will cause something like a state of paralysis on the part of consumers, at least in the near term.
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It's tempting to say these are terrible jobs, but the service sector has more wage pricing power than the manufacturing sector. If you're getting a pay increase from your boss today, it's probably not in manufacturing.
bit markets
It's going to make the markets a bit jittery, especially when the market is conditioned to be data-dependent.
quarter
It's a wake-up call. One quarter does not make a trend, but we have to be more on our guard.
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It would have been a lot more comforting to see greater strength in the ex-auto component than in the headline figure.
deflation risk
The risk of deflation has increased. Is it a significant risk? Probably not.
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The rise in the unemployment rate takes much of the sting away from the robust gain in payrolls from a monetary policy perspective. The big fear ahead of the release of this report was that labor markets were overheating.
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There's a huge hurricane hangover. I think the government will have to trip over itself to decide whether to have a huge downward revision to last month or whether the job losses will take a bigger hit this month.
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This is very good news. Workers may end up getting the purchasing power they've been lacking so far. While overall prices are still rising, we have good reason to believe energy prices will be going down.