Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
aware energy fed higher inflation might prices raise
The Fed will raise rates, but they're aware that higher energy prices might do some of their job. And inflation is not so high that they need to panic.
basically coming data fears growth soft
The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out; that's what the data are showing.
argue borrowing capacity consumer excess higher income ratio side
The consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio is much higher than it was in the '50s, so you can't argue that there is as much excess capacity on the borrowing side as there was in the '50s,
along core engine federal hike humming interest june keeps looks rate reserve
The core (inflation measure), while it's up, still looks very contained. This just keeps the Federal Reserve interest rate hike engine humming along after June 30.
consumer demand downward expect faster growing higher hopeful labor linger peak percent pressure sort turn
If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.
In some sense, that's good. But it's a double-edged sword.
expect fed moves rate signal words
In other words, before the end of 2002, the Fed should signal that their upward rate moves were just a warm-up for what we can expect in 2003.
speed
I just see it as a speed bump.
clearly economic environment rate speak talk
Clearly when you speak of an economic slowdown, you usually talk of an unemployment rate that is much, much higher. This environment is just not right for a recession,
clear continue evidence rising sector
clear evidence that this sector will not continue rising forever.
expected higher housing impact mortgage rates
Higher mortgage rates are having the expected impact on the housing market.
case
If I was to guess, it was probably a case of him being shrewd.
agreement although bit certainly early mode outcome recession remains rest sector universal
If the manufacturing sector remains mired in a recession mode for too long, it may be signaling the same for the rest of the economy. Although it may be a bit too early to make that assessment, there should be universal agreement that the ISM outcome certainly does not bode well for the rest of the economy.
decline due economic economy economy-and-economics growth impact oil percent realistic regional
I think a 0.2 percent decline in economic growth due Katrina's impact on oil and the regional economy is a realistic assumption,