Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
fed feeling improving labor march market months numbers people raise rates several start strong until wait
The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
closer consumer debate difficult mighty raise remains
It's mighty difficult the closer you get to the consumer to raise prices, and that remains the case. There is a big debate out there as to how long can this continue.
companies finished higher hit labor offset prices products profits question raise unit
The big question now is how much companies will be able to raise prices for finished products to offset the hit to profits from higher unit labor costs.
change comments issues knows low raise rates remain
I don't see the comments from these two representing a change in the Fed's policy. Everyone knows that rates this low can't last, but the same issues remain -- 'When do you raise rates? What is the right timing'?
economic federal finally interest labor last market maybe next number people piece raise rates reserve
If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
basis message nearly points raising trying
I think they are trying to say that they can still do their tightening 25 basis points at a time, but they still have a long way to go in raising rates. Essentially, the message is, 'if you think we're nearly done, think again'.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
basis currently demand fall high higher housing increase move remaining seeing seen starts today trend unable versus
While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.
compared hard imports large near rate slow term
It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
fed inflation officials slowing sort sounds worried
It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,
best both stock suggesting worlds
It's really suggesting the best of both worlds for the stock market. What's not to like?