Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
benign dollar far imported inflation prices reading worry
There's not much to worry about as far as imported inflation is concerned. For as long as the dollar hangs in there, we should see a benign reading for import prices excluding fuels.
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The trend is not going to be that great if imports are picking up in momentum.
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Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
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The big question now is how much companies will be able to raise prices for finished products to offset the hit to profits from higher unit labor costs.
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A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.
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The national labor market numbers are being skewered by the hurricanes at the moment and it's going to be a few months before we get a clean read.
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The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
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Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
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People were expecting the worst and I think the reaction you saw is that it wasn't as Draconian as many had feared. There wasn't any real hard table pounding or anything in the minutes that pointed to a 50-basic point hike at the next meeting.
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Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.
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With anticipations of higher rates still clearly in the minds of buyers, we cannot rule out fence-sitters rushing ahead of higher rates.
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There are reasonably deep-seated reasons for pessimism on the part of home builders.
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We would not jump to any conclusions based on these numbers, particularly as the weekly jobless claims figures, adjusted for hurricane effects, point to considerably stronger job growth than reported.
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Well, with gasoline well over $3.00 a gallon in most places when this survey was conducted, it is little wonder that consumers were cranky,