Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
basis knew market stock virtually
It was 25 basis points, everyone knew that, and so there's virtually no stock market reaction,
bets capacity damage gasoline higher powerful prices stay storm wait
It's a wait and see. If we get another powerful storm that does damage to refining capacity in particular, I think all bets can be off if gasoline prices will go higher and stay there.
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
anytime apart consumer fall growth housing likely outcome spending trend
A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.
clear data december knowing next possibly raising rates
They are being as clear as they possibly can be about raising rates in December without knowing what the data will be in the next month,
basically continue disastrous fed interest last month mouth official opened saying unless
They are basically saying what every Fed official who has opened his mouth in the last month has said, ... The Fed is going to continue to nudge short-term interest rates, unless something disastrous happens.
companies finished higher hit labor offset prices products profits question raise unit
The big question now is how much companies will be able to raise prices for finished products to offset the hit to profits from higher unit labor costs.
clean few labor market moment months national numbers
The national labor market numbers are being skewered by the hurricanes at the moment and it's going to be a few months before we get a clean read.
amazing data effect fairly given september
This is actually fairly amazing given all the uncertainty engendered by the effect of the hurricanes on September data that has yet to be reported.
basis message nearly points raising trying
I think they are trying to say that they can still do their tightening 25 basis points at a time, but they still have a long way to go in raising rates. Essentially, the message is, 'if you think we're nearly done, think again'.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
early housing stages
We're in the early stages of a slowdown in the housing market.
ahead buyers buying data last low maintained mortgage pace perceived plenty rate rates sales speculate strength
Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future?