Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
blamed energy fact fed growth hat
The Fed tipped its hat to the fact that growth has slowed a bit, and blamed it on energy prices,
comments determined fairly fed pace
The Fed comments were fairly unsurprising. They indicated that there is more tightening ahead, and that the pace will be determined by upcoming data.
basis knew market stock virtually
It was 25 basis points, everyone knew that, and so there's virtually no stock market reaction,
core drift expect good inflation obviously slow
While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.
disruption due energy markets orders prices remains seen solid trend ultimately volatile whether
While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
expect focused language people rest surprise took update word
Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
bad beginning either february housing month months roll starts
February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
clear data december knowing next possibly raising rates
They are being as clear as they possibly can be about raising rates in December without knowing what the data will be in the next month,
basically continue disastrous fed interest last month mouth official opened saying unless
They are basically saying what every Fed official who has opened his mouth in the last month has said, ... The Fed is going to continue to nudge short-term interest rates, unless something disastrous happens.
closer consumer debate difficult mighty raise remains
It's mighty difficult the closer you get to the consumer to raise prices, and that remains the case. There is a big debate out there as to how long can this continue.
believe reason slow
It's more of a reason to believe that things are going to slow down.
bets capacity damage gasoline higher powerful prices stay storm wait
It's a wait and see. If we get another powerful storm that does damage to refining capacity in particular, I think all bets can be off if gasoline prices will go higher and stay there.
amazing data effect fairly given september
This is actually fairly amazing given all the uncertainty engendered by the effect of the hurricanes on September data that has yet to be reported.