Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
blamed energy fact fed growth hat
The Fed tipped its hat to the fact that growth has slowed a bit, and blamed it on energy prices,
disruption due energy markets orders prices remains seen solid trend ultimately volatile whether
While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.
economy energy good health saying underlying
Basically, what they are saying is the underlying health of the economy was very good pre-hurricane and pre-spike in energy prices. And it is still pretty good after those things.
anytime consumers costs disappear economy energy higher labor likely markets seem soon taking toll
In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
considered current damage dated effect energy extent focus hurricane information lasting nature report therefore trade
The information in the report is considered dated because the current focus is on the extent of the damage to the nation's energy and trade infrastructure and therefore on the lasting nature of the effect Hurricane Katrina.
aggressive business consumer effort energy fail higher largely pass prices proves strapped
An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
basis message nearly points raising trying
I think they are trying to say that they can still do their tightening 25 basis points at a time, but they still have a long way to go in raising rates. Essentially, the message is, 'if you think we're nearly done, think again'.
basis currently demand fall high higher housing increase move remaining seeing seen starts today trend unable versus
While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.
compared hard imports large near rate slow term
It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
fed inflation officials slowing sort sounds worried
It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,