Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
anytime consumers costs disappear economy energy higher labor likely markets seem soon taking toll
In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
autumn companies costs economic finished goods growth higher likely pass pressure winter
Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.
best both stock suggesting worlds
It's really suggesting the best of both worlds for the stock market. What's not to like?
close coming data eye fed keeping wage
The Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage data in the coming months.
blamed energy fact fed growth hat
The Fed tipped its hat to the fact that growth has slowed a bit, and blamed it on energy prices,
comments determined fairly fed pace
The Fed comments were fairly unsurprising. They indicated that there is more tightening ahead, and that the pace will be determined by upcoming data.
bad bonds good high maybe people solid
It was a good solid number, maybe not as high as some people were hoping, and not as bad as bonds had feared,
consumer core fed focusing growth inflation labor lately level news quite side stage
The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.
fed feeling improving labor march market months numbers people raise rates several start strong until wait
The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
basis knew market stock virtually
It was 25 basis points, everyone knew that, and so there's virtually no stock market reaction,
bad beginning either february housing month months roll starts
February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
core drift expect good inflation obviously slow
While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.
disruption due energy markets orders prices remains seen solid trend ultimately volatile whether
While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.