Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
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In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
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As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
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Well, with gasoline well over $3.00 a gallon in most places when this survey was conducted, it is little wonder that consumers were cranky,
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Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.
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It's really suggesting the best of both worlds for the stock market. What's not to like?
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The Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage data in the coming months.
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The Fed tipped its hat to the fact that growth has slowed a bit, and blamed it on energy prices,
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The Fed comments were fairly unsurprising. They indicated that there is more tightening ahead, and that the pace will be determined by upcoming data.
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It was a good solid number, maybe not as high as some people were hoping, and not as bad as bonds had feared,
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The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
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It was 25 basis points, everyone knew that, and so there's virtually no stock market reaction,
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February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
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While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.